By Palash R. Ghosh: Subscribe to Palash's RSS feed
October 22, 2010 5:58 PM EDT
If current climate change trends persist, Asia’s coastal mega-cities will flood more often, on a larger scale, and ultimately hurt economic growth in the respective countries.
A study jointly undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the World Bank, determined that costs from major flooding events on infrastructure and the economy could run into the billions of dollars, with urban poor populations likely to be the hardest hit.
The report focused on Bangkok, Thailand, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and Manila, Philippines, all of which have populations close to or over 10 million. Two are capital cities and all three are centers of national and regional economic growth contributing substantially to the GDP of the respective countries.
“In all three cities, there is likely to be an increase in the number of persons exposed to flooding in 2050 under different climate scenarios compared to a situation without climate change” the report stated.
“Costs of damage likely to be substantial and can range from 2 to 6 percent of regional GDP.”
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As coastal megacities, all face increased climate-related risks such as rising sea levels and an increased frequency of extreme weather events, the report stated.
“While commendable measures to counteract flooding have already been taken by these cities, much more needs to be done.”
The report recommends that these cities employ sound urban environmental management.
“Land subsidence due to groundwater pumping, dumping of solid waste into city canals and waterways, clogged drainage systems, and deforestation in the upper watershed all contribute to urban flooding,” the report noted.
“Better management of these urban environmental issues will help manage future climate-related impacts.”
The report also recommends that governments of coastal megacities undertake proactive measures to address climate risks as an integral part of urban planning, including the development of “strategic urban adaptation frameworks for managing climate risks, strengthening institutional capacity for adaptation and implementing measures such as land use planning and zoning to help reduce urban vulnerability.”
For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, about 26 percent of the population is currently affected by extreme storm events, but those numbers could climb to more than 60 percent by 2050.
Looking at Manila, the report states that in the worst-case scenario a major flood could cause damage totaling almost a quarter of the metropolitan area’s GDP.
“The main threats to Manila are extreme rainfall, sea level rise, as well as more powerful typhoons,” the study indicated. “The report suggests that continuous improvements and redesigning of flood control infrastructure are necessary.”
The recommendations could also be applied to other megacities in the rest of Asia and Africa, which also face growing threat from climate change-related catastrophes.
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