Markets will be holiday hit today with the two largest centers out as the UK sees Spring Bank Holiday and the US has Memorial Day. Calendars also appear bare the only thing of note going forward Canadian GDP figures while from Asia we had mixed results a strong Trade Balance for New Zealand at 1.113B in April while quarterly Company Operating Profits contracted to read -2.0% against expected gains of 2.1%. Overall we expect a quiet start for the week though the dollar pairs look vulnerable for a technial correction.
Friday saw AUDUSD finally pushing past the descending wedge resistance line with daily macd crossing higher while stochastic is overbought. Note we have also pushed above the daily EMA lines with the move. That said we appear to have pullback signals intraday as hourly macd and stochastic drop while 4H stochastic comes-off overbought levels. Immediate risk is for a pullback to the descending wedge resistance line. We prefer buying following the pullback to 1.0665(71) with stops just under 1.0611.
Repeated attempts to break higher in a daily symmetric triangle the past has failed with AUDJPY now at the tip of the triangle with daily macd flat though stochastic still points up. Note prices are inside the EMA lines. Looking at 4H charts stochastic are bearish while macd is flat. Hourly indicators are bearish. As with the other Yen crosses risk appears to be for Yen gains, consider shorts from just under 86.86. Alternative entry a break of 86.29.
We find GBPJPY inside the daily EMA lines for the past 3 trading days suggesting mixed markets with stochastic crossing lower and macd heading up. Going intraday day we find 4H macd’s and stochastic dropping while Hourly indicators show macd about to cross lower in the direction of its stochastic. Immediate risk is for weakness though precision pricing will be necessary given the tight congestion. Consider shorts from just under 133.46 for 132.92.
Unlike the bullish Euro, EURJPY spent the past week in a ranging market with prices capped by the daily EMA lines. Indicators for the most part have been bullish with macd steadily rising along with its stochastic. In intraday charts we see mixed signals from the 4H macd and stochastic while candles see a series of spinning tops. Hourly indicators are developing sell signals. Given the daily EMA lines and different directions from different time frames it appears EURJPY is likely to remain in a congestion within a bigger symmetric triangle. Immediate risk calls for a sell-off possibly to 114.65 where we can possibly reverse the trade for new buys.
We saw a sell-off in USDJPY in the latter half of the past week taking us back under the daily EMA lines and testing the strong support at 80.71. Daily indicators show macd poised at a bear cross while stochastic is oversold. From 4H charts we have a bullish divergence in stochastic as macd drops. Hourly indicators see a confluence of buys. Note we have just triggered a small double bottom. Consider buys on a close above 80.97 for 81.79. Alternative entry just above 80.71.
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