With May Non-Farm Payrolls out later in the US Session Asian markets will likely see a cautious trade particulalry after the way its shadow, ADP Non-farm Employment Change disappointed to read 38,000 against a 177,000 consensus forecast. Despite consensus for NFP remaining at 194,000 and the spotty record of ADP in anticipating NFP markets remain very much concerned about how the number will turnout. As such we expect people in Asia to prefer remaining sidelined.
Thursday saw a tight range for Cable with prices holding above the daily EMA lines at the close though indicators now show a topping off in macd while stochastic is pushing for oversold levels. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic rising while macd continues to drop. From the hourly picture we have both heading lower macd’s poised at a bear cross as stochastic drops. Look for a break of the 1.6305 area for a further sell-off to 1.6264 then 1.6211.
Kiwi has come-off its latest historic high though the pull-back for now appears to have lost momentum with Thursday’s doji candle. Daily stochastic is dropping while macd is just beginning to top off. Looking intraday we have mixed signals in the 4H macd and stochastic while the hourly time frames shows a confluence of buys. At this point we need a close under 0.8113 to argue that a big picture from the new highs is getting started. Consider shorts on a close under 0.8113 or on a rejection from 0.8220.
After repeated bounces off the previous descending wedge resistance line AUDUSD finally closed near its highs to keep above the EMA lines. We have daily macd’s bullish while stochastic is heading lower. From the 4H charts we have macd’s poised at a bullish cross while stochastic is now overbought. Hourly macd and stochastic are also seeing a new bullish confluence. Despite the buy signals we do not find Aussy at a good entry point, look for a close under 1.0662 for a limited sell-off to 1.0605. Consider buys from 1.0605 with stops at 1.0570.
Following Thursday’s rally we are now just under the key resistances level of 1.4516 with daily stochastic overbought and macd rising. Note we used the daily EMA lines for a support as they begin to generate golden crosses. Intraday we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture while hourly charts show a bearish divergence out of stochastic and macd rising. Immediate risk is for an upside breakout an hourly close above 1.4516 may be used as an entry. We prefer using a bounce off 1.4479 with stops at 1.4450 as an entry.
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