After a whipsawish trading day Aussy ended up with a white candle with small shadows in the daily charts suggesting bullish consensus though failing to cover the previous day’s low wick. Among indicators we are seeing possible bear cross in stochastic in the works while daily macd has already clearly push past the signals for the upside. In 4H charts we have stochastic already overbought while macd is flat though clearly above the signal technically bullish. Hourly charts has stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is flat with the same values between signal and the macd line. At this point we are looking poised to push past 1.0148, a close above this level may be seen as entry for a rally up to 1.0218. Note the longer it takes to push past 1.0148 the greater the possibility of this turning into a bear market.
Focusing on forward looking US numbers we have the Loonie covering the tail in Wednesday’s hammer with daily indicators suggesting a bear market. Prices are once more under the daily EMA lines while macd has crossed lower and stochastic gone to oversold levels. Moving to the lower time frames we have a gravestone doji in 4H candles though stochastic remains oversold and macd pointing lower. In hourly charts we have macd bottoming out, poised at a bullish cross over while stochastic has pushed to overbought levels. Immediate risk appear to call for a bounce off the 1.0199 price point though higher time frames are bearish. Failure to close under 1.0199 quickly risks a bounce towards the strong resistances at 1.0282.
Thursday saw Kiwi with a strong push for the weeks highs ending up with a big white candle though falling short of the goal. Daily indicators has stochastic just under the 80 level while macd has just crossed higher. Note we face a strong resistance level at 0.7761. In intraday charts we see prices just under the strong resistance area though candles are indecisive even as 4H stochastic is poised to come off overbought levels and macd is flat above the signal. Hourly indicators has macd’s flat with roughly the same value as the signal while stochastic is poised to cross lower. For now we prefer looking for shorts from just under 0.7761 with stops tightly under 0.7775.
Thursday saw limited ranges for Cable as the daily candlestick suggested a bear market while indicators then were still pushing up. In the end we saw another long wick and small body pushing the daily stochastic into a bear cross while macd is still heading up. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic just crossing lower and macd doing the same. Note it could be argued that we are getting lower highs. From the hourly picture we have indecisive candles while macd is flat and stochastic is heading up. For now we prefer remaining sidelined any break of the support or resistance must be accompanied by an external stimulus for it to generate momentum.
Attempts to generate a follow through sell-off from Wednesday’s dark cloud cover failed to see the desired result with market ending up in limited range play though for the most part pushing for the prior highs. Among indicators we have mixed signals as macd crosses higher while stochastic heads down and EMA lines are bearish, the latter acting as another set of resistances. In intraday charts we have indecisive candlesticks with 4H macd and stochastic themselves flat. Hourly indicators appear to have macd opening up though this after staying flat in New York trade while stochastic is now overbought. Despite everything we continue to look at Euro as a sell on rallies, consider shorts from just under the 1.3130 region.
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