Assessing Bernanke?s Speech at Jackson Hole

By Roger Baettig | August 31 2012 12:43 PM

The market was highly anticipating Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, specifically to see if he would signal the launch of QE3. Recent FOMC meeting minutes showed heightened concern of the weak employment situation, and therefore showed more prospect of QE3. Today (8/31), Bernanke delivered a speech on this matter as well.

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Here is the speech on the Fed's website:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120831a.htm

He did spend a lot of the speech discussing the tools the FOMC have been using to combat the financial crisis and economic downturn. He also focused on the concern of a weak jobs market.

Many financial media outlets are assessing his speech as pro-QE3.

WSJ writes: Bernanke Leaves Little Doubt He's Gearing Up to Do More.

CNN reports: Bernanke paves the way for more stimulus.

Marketwatch notes: 'QE3′ is necessary, Bernanke suggests.

Bloomberg sounds more balanced, or neutral. Instead of a positive, its more of a non-negative: Bernanke Says He Wouldn't Rule Out Further Bond Buying.

Forbes has a more conservative read on QE, probably taking hint from what the market's initial reaction was (risk-off): Bernanke Promises Nothing, Stocks Surrender Rally. (I swear they changed the title right when stocks found support). It is now "Bernanke Hedges Bets; Fed Can Do More, but No Guarantees".

It should be noted that this initial move in the first 10 minutes since the transcript was released, is followed by a move that would be aligned with higher QE expectation.

The dust has not settled yet on what the market thinks, but most financial media outlets are convinced that the Fed is closer to QE3.

What do you think.

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