Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
Previous AUD/NZD post (1/20): Is AUD/NZD Turning Bullish Again?
- The AUD/NZD declined sharply after weaker than expected inflation data from Australia. The Aussie is pressured again, after showing signs of a breakout to the top above highs from last week. The decline accelerated after the fundamental event risk, breaking back below 1.30 which was the low to start the week.
- The market is now at 50% and a close in the 4H chart below 1.2965 should have the 1.2935 level (61.8% retracement) in sight.
- What happens if that breaks?
- Today's price action could complete an engulfing pattern, suggesting a bearish continuation of the decline that start in December 2010, seen in the daily chart.
- The current decline comes after a rally retracement of 61.8% against the downswing that started in 2011.
- A close in the 4H chart below 1.2940 has the 1.2840 in sight, so breaking below 1.2935 is a very strong bearish-confirmation. Then if the market extends even lower than the 1.28 psychological support (along with fibonacci sluter of 50% and 78.6%), we might head towards 1.2630 area (fibonacci cluster of 100% and 61.8%).
- For now a target considering these projections could be the 1.2750 level (where we also see the SMA 200 in the daily chart).
Will the AUD/NZD Top off? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist