Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- This is a follow up of the AUD/NZD, which caught our eyes with a bullish breakout last Monday. The swing projection targets 1.3640. The swing projection is based on a positive reversal signal spotted on the weekly chart.
- The rally picked up speed this week. We did have an Earthquake in New Zealand. This would definitely contribute to the Aussie gaining on the Kiwi.
- Now, we are at 1.35, which is the high from 2010, established 12/27.
- We mentioned a positive reversal in the weekly, and the swing projection to 1.3640, which has not been satisfied yet. But we also saw a positive reversal in the 4H chart satisfied now at 1.35.
- The RSI shows an extended divergence, so even though we might be able to eventually break above 1.35 with strong momentum, the near-term suggestion is a correction.
- Looking at the 4H chart, we see that a 50% retracement can bring the pair to the channel support near 1.3355. This is also near the previous high from 2/17. The market can also extend this correction towards 1.3318, 61.8% retracement level.
- Further decline below 1.3318 would weaken the bullish scenario, but only a break below the 1.32 pivot would bring back the bearish outlook.
- To end the week, expect a bit of a correction, but I would look for support above 1.3350. Then a break above 1.35 should resume the uptrend to the 1.3640 target area.
Will AUD/NZD see a correction at 1.35, and will it eventually break it towards 1.3640? We would love to hear what you think.
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