Forex Technical Update

Previous: AUD/USD - A Push Above 1.0020 Opens up 1.0240 (6/10)

AUD/USD 1H Chart 4:10PM EDT 6/11/2012

AUD/USD

In the last FXTimes report on the AUD/USD, I noted that a break above 1.00-1.0020 opens up 1.0240. The market held at 1.00, and fell persistently throughout the 6/11 session. Coming to the first session's close (end of the US session), we have the AUD/USD falling below a rising trendlien that held the corrective rally in June.

The 1H chart shows that the market is pushing below a 0.9875 pivot as well as the rising trendline, opening the 0.9818 pivot. A break below 0.9818 would complete a double top and suggest a market trying to slide back to the May-June lows, near 0.96.

Let's see if this breakout is true. As the AUD/USD becomes short-term oversold, let's see what kind of pullback we get. A rally holding below the 0.9908 pivot, below 0.9910, should be clearly within the context of further decline. A break above 0.9910 however makes the outlook murky with a range between 0.9818 and 1.00, or even between 0.98 and 1.0020.

As far as the RSI reading. A hold below 50 after a pullback would suggest a persistent short-term bearish trend developing (with 0.96 in sight). A break above 60 however takes away the bearish momentum, and the AUD/USD would still be in a choppy consolidation.

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Fan Yang CMT is the Chief Technical Strategist, trader, educator and a of the main contributors to FXTimes - provider of rex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.