AUD/USD's retreat from 0.8086 extends further today and with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top should be in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.7931 will suggest that rebound from 0.7780 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.7788 support will revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped out and should target 0.7267 support for confirmation. On the upside, however, above 0.8086 will indicate that rise from 0.7780 is still in progress. Break of 0.8236/8262 resistance zone will confirm that recent rise has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.8382. But after all, AUD/USD should start continue to lose momentum on next rise and finally bring reversal after meeting 0.8382.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD price actions from 0.6008 are treated as correction to down trend from 0.9849 only and has already met target zone of 0.7802/0.8519. Focus remains on reversal signal as AUD/USD stays in this range. While another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance should be seen as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 resistance and bring reversal eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7788 support will now be an important signal that whole correction from 0.6008 has completed and will turn focus to 0.7267 key support for confirmation.

However, note that sustained break of 0.8519 resistance will seriously dampen this view and argue that the sharp decline from 0.9849 to 0.6008 was indeed a correction to long term rally from 0.4773 to 0.9849 only. And in such case, stronger medium rise could then be seen to retest 0.9849 high.

width=498