AUD/USD Daily Outlook

AUD/USD's pull back from 0.9327 resumes and drops to as low as 0.9135 so far today. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.9100 or below. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 0.9327 is needed to confirm that rise from 0.8734 has resumed for 0.9404 high. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first. However, break of 0.9327 will indicate that whole rise from 0.8374 has resumed for a test on 0.9404 high.

In the bigger picture, the corrective three wave structure of fall from 0.9404 to 0.8734 suggests that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. Break of 0.9404 will confirm medium term rise resumption and should target 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, though, break of 0.8734 support will revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.