AUD/USD Daily Outlook

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor as long as 0.9145 minor resistance holds. As noted before, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.8961 will shift favor to the case that fall from 0.9327 is resuming the whole decline from 0.9404 and AUD/USD should drop through 0.8734 support. On other hand, strong rebound from 0.8961, or a break of 0.9145 minor resistance, will indicate that fall from 0.9327 is likely just a correction and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 0.9327 and then 0.9404.

In the bigger picture, the failure below 0.9404 high and deep pull back from 0.9327 mixes up the outlook of AUD/USD and we'll stay neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, one thing to note is that AUD/USD is losing upside momentum as seen with bearish divergence in daily MACD. Hence, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance as AUD/USD approaches 2008 high of 0.9849 and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8734 support will in turn revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.