AUDUSD: Cautiously Trading Above LT Rising Trendline

AUDUSD -The pair continues to hold above its longer term rising trendlinethough cautiously as momentum is building up slowly. While this occurs, we envisage a trade towards its Nov 25'09 high at 0.9321. Decisively overcoming that level will signal a retarget of its YTD high residing at 0.9404 where a clean penetration and negation will resume its medium term uptrend and accelerate further gains towards the 0.9592 level, its July 27'08 high and subsequently the 0.9790 level, its July 20'08 high. Its daily stochsticsremains bullish and trending higher suggesting further strength. Although a break above its longer term trendlinehas improved its chances of further upside, we would like to see the 0.9321/0.9404 levels toppled to relief the pair of downside threats. Initial support is seen at the 0.9221 level, the location of LT rising trendlinewith a turn below there targeting the 0.8943 and 0.8904 levels where a clearance will push the pair further towards the 0.8672 level, its Oct 01'09.On the whole, unless a sustained break above the 0.9321/0.9404 levels occurs, downside risk still exists towards the 0.8943/0.8904 levels.

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