Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The AUD/USD did top off as anticipated in the last post, and has broken below 1.0050, about to test the 1.00, parity level.
- A possible wave count is that we completed a WXY corrective wave, where the X wave connected a W and Y wave which were both zig zags.
- In this scenario, the market should be developing bearish impulse waves down.
- Now that the market is providing us a second downswing, possible wave 3, we can test our theory.
- A rally against this current downswing should not break above 1.01, or 1.0110. A break above that suggests we are still in a choppy corrective mode, or even a continuation of the bullish mode in an attempt to test or break above 1.0250.
- An eventual break back below 1.0 would suggest a test of the rising trendline near 0.990.
- Looking at the daily chart, we see that the bearish scenario would eventually target the 0.9760 area, or extend to the 0.9550 lows.
Did the AUD/USD complete its deep retracement, or it this current decline just a correction that can lead to a rally above our record high near 1.0250? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist