AUD/USD Forecast | AUD/USD Weekly Outlook @ Forex Abode

 
on November 18 2012 3:54 PM

Australian Dollar - US Dollar (AUD/USD)

 

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Aussie-US Dollar (AUD/USD) Analysis

(Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. All technical indicators for the weekly AUD/USD forecast are based on the daily forex charts and in some cases 4-hourly charts. The trading strategies and forecast is based on the technical and fundamental outlook.)

AUD-US Dollar (AUD/USD) Forecast:

 

Previous Outlook of AUD/USD:" The price action is not convincing to expect any strong upward gains. Some better than expected economic releases from China have been keeping AUD/USD from a drop but otherwise the price action is near a strong resistance zone. Our outlook stays neutral for AUD/USD and sooner or later we expect another fall. On the downside the support near 1.0330 is critical. If a break of that takes place then our current neutral outlook will turn towards bearish." AUD/USD Outlook For This Week:Please check the relative strengths of recent economic releases and technical indications at following links as the base of this week's AUD/USD outlook. We recommend to check the economic strength meter on Fundamental Outlook page.AUD/USD Fundamental OutlookAUD/USD Technical Outlook

 

As mentioned during last week that sooner or later we expected a fall (quoted above), The Aussie-Dollar (AUD/USD) found resistance below 1.0500 psychological level and fell from 1.0458. The fall broke the mentioned support of 1.0330 and the pair went as low as 1.0287 before closing for the week at 1.0339. 

Our short-term outlook has become bearish again and below 1.0287, we will look forward to a move first towards 1.0235 where some strong support had come on October 23/24. A break of that should target 1.0150 i.e. towards the support level of October 9th (1.-149) or possibly more. 

On the upside we expect resistance in the zone of 1.0375/1.0390. Any decisive break over this may take AUD/USD towards 1.0440/1.0458 resistance zone.

The pair has been moving up in the short term price channel. The recent fall had broken the support of this channel and we need to wait a bit if the price sustains below it. Such an action will confirm the above mentioned outlook. Please also check the blog post about AUD/USD which was posted on last Thursday.

From a longer-term perspective please note that AUD/USD has been in a very volatile sideways range since the beginning of 2011 i.e. for almost 18 month, as shown in this weekly chart.

 

Strategies for trading AUD/USD:Our near-term outlook for AUD/USD for some deeper downward consolidation. We are primarily on the short-selling side with any upward corrections. The positions would be short term because any unexpected volatile moves because of any economic updates from China or Euro zone economy cannot be ruled out. One of the reasons of the recent fall can be attributed to market apprehensions because of recent leadership change in China. Check the new pip value calculator, position size calculator and margin calculation on the upcoming Forex broker selection module. You may also check the analysis updates in the Forex blog and Forex Forum.    (Please join the News Letter or Register to get email alerts when Forex analysis is updated)For short term Forex trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for Austrailan Dollar/US Dollar at AUD/USD Daily Analysis.You may also share and check any real-time trading positions for AUD/USD in the forum and also the current AUD/USD market sentiments.There can also be some news or some indications from technical indicators or chart patters which may suggest some major moves. Please check and share such observations about about AUD-USD and other currency pairs in the Forex Forum Alerts. AUD/USD Interest Rate Comparison(For Carry Trades)Australian dollar interest rate3.25%USD interest rate0.25%AUD/USD interest rate comparision3.00% 

 

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