AUD/USD
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 13, 2012 Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

There are no major economic events scheduled for New Zealand, Australia or the USA on Monday. Note the schedule below is GMT time.

23:50 JPY GDP (QoQ)

 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.

 23:50 JPY GDP Price Index (YoY)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index measures the change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP. It is the broadest measure of inflation and is the primary indicator the Bank of Japan uses to gauge inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

The Tertiary Industry Index measures the change in the total value of services purchased by businesses. It is a leading indicator of economic health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

 

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD  was trading at 107.13 US cents, down from 108.13 cents on Thursday afternoon.

The Australian dollar has fallen slightly, despite news that Greek ministers have reached an agreement on an austerity package as part of the country's debt bailout.

The Aussie dollar and currency markets were generally very quiet overnight. Any moves we did see were within the bounds of recent ranges.

 The Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed its near-term growth and inflation forecasts Friday and said it has scope to cut interest rates if needed, just days after stunning markets by keeping its cash rate steady at 4.25% instead of an expected cut.

Forecasting core inflation to remain within its 2%-3% target band through 2012 and 2013 the bank painted a mixed outlook for the domestic economy split between a red-hot resources boom while industries such as tourism and manufacturing suffer from a high exchange rate.

It noted investment is continuing to pour into resources projects at a rapid pace while conditions in the non-mining economy are subdued, with consumer demand particularly weak.

Australia 4Q Business Confidence Index Up 4 Points To +1 -NAB,

Overall, confidence rose four points to one index point from the third quarter, while business conditions gained five points to two index points, according to the quarterly National Australia Bank business survey.

the broader mood among executives remains subdued, with a large disparity across sector performance. Mining, transport and utilities all posted strong business conditions and confidence, while retail, manufacturing and construction were weak - further solidifying a growing gap between those areas benefiting from an ongoing mining boom against those hit by a corresponding rally in the country's currency

 Australian & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. risked a hostile public reaction Friday by increasing the cost of its home loans despite no move in the country's official cash rate.

Australia's third-largest bank said it has increased its standard variable interest rate by 6 percentage points to 7.36%. The move is to ease pressure on margins caused by soaring funding costs.

China's trade surplus widened more than expected in January amid a sharp drop in imports, although analysts cautioned against alarm, saying the data may reflect holiday-related distortions rather than deterioration in underlying economic trends.

China's trade surplus totaled $27.3 billion for the month, according to data reported Friday by the state-run Xinhua news agency, outpacing expectations for a $10.6 billion surplus according to a poll compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

Imports for the month were down 15.3% from a year earlier, while exports contracted a 0.5%, according to the Xinhua-reported figures. Despite repeated pledges by China's top leaders that they will stick to their two-year-long property-tightening campaign, expectations of various forms of easing have surfaced after the Chinese central bank said Tuesday it will support financing for social housing projects and first-time home purchases.

The Asian currency markets should remain fairly calm until the JPY reports are released early Monday morning. This may move the JPY and with it the AUD.

Economic Data Thursday Feb 9, 2012 ( actual v forecast )

 
AUD
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
1.00
 
 
 
-3.00
 
 

 
KRW
South Korean Interest Rate Decision
3.25%
 
3.25%
 
3.25%
 
 

 
CNY
Chinese CPI (YoY)
4.5%
 
4.0%
 
4.1%
 
 

 
CNY
Chinese PPI (YoY)
0.7%
 
0.8%
 
1.7%
 
 

 
GBP
Industrial Production (MoM)
0.5%
 
0.2%
 
-0.5%
 
 

 
GBP
Manufacturing Production (MoM)
1.0%
 
0.3%
 
-0.1%
 
 

 
GBP
Trade Balance
-7.1B
 
-8.4B
 
-8.9B
 
 

 
GBP
Interest Rate Decision
0.50%
 
0.50%
 
0.50%
 
 

 
EUR
Interest Rate Decision
1.00%
 
1.00%
 
1.00%
 
 

 
USD
Initial Jobless Claims
358K
 
370K
 
373K
 
 

 
EUR
ECB Press Conference
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
USD
Continuing Jobless Claims
3515K
 
3525K
 
3451K
 
 

 
MXN
Mexican CPI (YoY)
4.0%
 
4.0%
 
3.8%
 
 

 
GBP
NIESR GDP Estimate
-0.2%
 
 
 
-0.2%
 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Feb 13 10:10 Norway T-bill auction

Feb 13 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2012 Bubill

Feb 13 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Feb 20

Feb 14 09:30 Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL

Feb 14 09:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Feb 14 10:10 Greece 3M T-bill auction

Feb 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 14 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills

Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16 16:00 US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS

AUD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 Name  S3  S2  S1  Pivot  R1  R2  R3

 Classic
1.0501
1.0594
1.0640
1.0733
1.0779
1.0872
1.0918

 Fibonacci
1.0594
1.0647
1.0680
1.0733
1.0786
1.0819
1.0872

 Camarilla
1.0649
1.0662
1.0674
1.0733
1.0700
1.0712
1.0725

 Woodie's
-
1.0582
1.0617
1.0721
1.0756
1.0860
-

 DeMark's
-
-
1.0756
1.0721
1.0617
-
-