AUD/USD

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012 Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

 

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0779 up .023% The Australian dollar is almost one US cent higher after strong American economic data and positive sentiment in Europe caused a global rally in equities and risk currencies.

At mid day, the Australian dollar was trading at 107.54 US cents, up from 106.68 cents on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Reports just received say that the ECB will exchange their currently existing old Greek bonds for new ones to avoid any legislative action issued by the Greek government to force bondholders to take a settlement.

Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

 

GBP

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

47

 

40

 

38

 
 

 

AUD

 

Employment Change 

46.3K

 

10.9K

 

-35.6K

 
 

 

AUD

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3%

 

5.2%

 
 

 

SEK

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

2.3%

 
 

 

SEK

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.50%

 

1.50%

 

1.75%

 
 

 

EUR

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

USD

 

Building Permits 

0.68M

 

0.68M

 

0.67M

 
 

 

USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 
 

 

CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

7.38B

 

7.98B

 

14.64B

 
 

 

USD

 

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.68M

 

0.69M

 
 

 

CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

0.60%

 

0.50%

 

1.90%

 
 

 

USD

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

 

USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K

 

361K

 
 

 

USD

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3426K

 

3550K

 

3526K

 
 

 

USD

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

MXN

 

Mexican GDP (YoY) 

3.7%

 

3.9%

 

4.5%

 
 

 

USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.2

 

8.4

 

7.3

 
 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

AUD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.0518
1.0581
1.0673
1.0736
1.0828
1.0891
1.0983

Fibonacci
1.0581
1.0641
1.0677
1.0736
1.0796
1.0832
1.0891

Camarilla
1.0721
1.0736
1.0750
1.0736
1.0778
1.0792
1.0807

Woodie's
-
1.0588
1.0687
1.0743
1.0841
1.0898
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.0859
1.0752
1.0704
-
-