Economic Events: (GMT)

03:30     AUD       Interest Rate Decision                                 4.00%                    4.25%                   

 03:30    AUD       RBA Rate Statement     

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.                                                                                    

 15:00    USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.                                                                                                             

23:30     AUD       Westpac Consumer Sentiment                                 2.40%   

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.           

AUD/USD
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:  ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0714 The Australian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart Monday after weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers reduced the trend of the Aussie.

The question is with the AUD is what will the RBA due in tomorrows meeting. Australian retail sales disappoint in December, -0.1% MoM against expectations of +0.2%, increasing liklihood of RBA rate cut tomorrow.

Job ads on other hand show biggest rise in 2 years, up by 6%, which might convince RBA to stay on hold

One Australian newspaper thinks RBA may leave rates on hold tomorrow on back of strong US data on Friday

General consensus in market is that RBA will stick by previous signals and cut by 25bps

Australian TD-MI inflation gauge steady at 0.2% MoM

The chance of another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank tomorrow is decreasing. Until recent  local economic data, the odds were heavily in favour of the RBA making it three rate cuts in a row when its monetary policy board meets.

 

 

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 07  09:00  Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL

Feb 07  10:10  Greece  6M T-bill auction

Feb 07  10.30  UK  Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt

Feb 07  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 16

Feb 07  18:00  US  Auctions 3Y Notes

Feb 08  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 08  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Feb 08  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Feb 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Feb 13

Feb 08  18:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Feb 09  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09  15:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09  16:00  US  Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09  18:00  Italy   Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction

AUD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.0631
1.0669
1.0700
1.0738
1.0769
1.0807
1.0838

Fibonacci
1.0669
1.0696
1.0712
1.0738
1.0765
1.0781
1.0807

Camarilla
1.0711
1.0717
1.0724
1.0738
1.0736
1.0743
1.0749

Woodie's
-
1.0667
1.0696
1.0736
1.0764
1.0805
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.0754
1.0731
1.0684
-
-