AUD/USD
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 9, 2012 Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

There are no major economic events, reports or data expected in Asia on Thursday

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    388K                      367K                     

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3525K                    3437K     

Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0829

The Aussie was the surprise of the day yesterday, after the RBA shocked markets and maintained the current interest rate of 4.25%, while all the markets were predicting a drop to 4.00%. Only ANZ called it right. This surprise and the weaker dollar yesterday pushed the AUS to a new recent high. As the markets cooled the Aussie lost some strenght, opening this morning at 1.0808. As today moved on, the USD began generating some steam as investors became worried about Greece. Yesterday, news reports stated that a deal would be finalized Tuesday evening and at the very last minute the meetings were postponed until Wednesday, the elation of the markets waned over night and the USD is moving back up.Today is going to be deal or no deal.

Prior Economic Report Results

 AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

4.00% 

4.25% 

 
 

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

2.40% 

 
 
 

 USD

 10-Year Note Auction 

 

1.900% 

 
 

NZD

Employment Cha (QoQ) 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

 

NZD

Unemployment Rate 

6.5% 

 

6.6% 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 08  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 08  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Feb 08  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Feb 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Feb 13

Feb 08  18:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Feb 09  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09  15:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09  16:00  US  Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09  18:00  Italy   Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction

AUD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.0706
1.0735
1.0787
1.0816
1.0868
1.0897
1.0949

Fibonacci
1.0735
1.0766
1.0785
1.0816
1.0847
1.0866
1.0897

Camarilla
1.0818
1.0825
1.0833
1.0816
1.0847
1.0855
1.0862

Woodie's
-
1.0741
1.0799
1.0822
1.0880
1.0903
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.0882
1.0823
1.0801
-
-