Aussie-US Dollar (AUD/USD)

The AUD/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for AUD/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. AUD/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

Aussie - US Dollar (AUD/USD)-Recent economic releases:

Australia (AUD): CB Leading Indicator: 0.2% against the previous -0.3%.
Australia (AUD): Westpac Leading Index (MoM): 0.1% against the previous 0.6%.
Australia (AUD): RBA's Meeting Minutes: Pace of output growth was around trend over the year to the September quarter, despite some slowing in recent quarters. Growth in business investment looked reasonably strong in the September quarter. exports of iron ore had remained at a high level over recent months and coal exports from Queensland had been recovering. Complete report can be seen at http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2012/04122012.html.
Australia (AUD): Some poor than expected economic releases from China for Foreign Direct Investment, Housing Price Index and CB Leading Economic Index. Weaker data from China goes against the AUD very fast.

U.S. (USD): NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for December: -8.10, negative as compared to the forecasts(-1.0) as well as the previous -5.22.
U.S. (USD): Net Long-Term TIC Flows: USD 1.3B, negative as compared to the forecasts (USD 24.3B) as well as the previous 3.2B U.S. Dollars.
U.S. (USD): Housing: Housing Starts was 0.861M and less than the consensus of 0.873M and previous month's 0.888M. On the other hand the new building permits were 0.899M and hence more than the expected 0.875M and previous 0.868M.
U.S. (USD): Existing Home Sales: The month on month change was 5.9% and quite positive as compared to the forecasts (1.3%) as well as the previous 1.5%.
U.S. (USD): GDP: Gross Domestic Purchase Price Index for Q3 was 1.6% against the previous 1.4%. The Annualized GDP in Q3 was 3.1% and positive as compared to the forecasts(2.8%)  as well as the previous 2.7%.
U.S. (USD): Jobless Claims: Initial claims were 361K and hence negative as compared to the forecasts (357K) as well as the previous 344K. Same was the case with continuing jobless claims which were 3.225M against the previous 3.213M and expected 3.199M.
U.S. (USD): Personal Consumption Expenditure: The quarter on quarter PCE Prices in Q3 remained same as the previous and expected 1.6%. Same was the case with the core PCE which remained as 1.1%.
U.S. (USD): CB Leading Indicator (MoM): -0.2% and though same as the forecasts but quite less than the previous 0.3%.
U.S. (USD): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 8.1, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (-3.0) as well as the previous -10.7.
U.S. (USD): Durable Goods Orders (November): 0.7% and though better than the consensus of 0.2% but less than the previous 1.1%. Same with the Durable Goods Orders ex-Transportation which were 1.6% against the consensus of -0.2% and previous 1.9%.
U.S. (USD): Income and Expenditure: The November data for Personal Income (MoM) showed a change of 0.6% which was better than the consensus of 0.3% and previous 0.1%. The year on year core personal consumption expenditure price index was 1.5% against the previous 1.6%. Personal spending data came out same as the consensus of 0.4% and quite better than the previous -0.1%.

U.S. (USD): Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 72.9, negative as compared to the forecasts (74.7) as well as the previous 74.5.

AUD/USD Outlook: Economic Releases (Strength Meter)

 
AUD/USD fundamental analysis - Economic strength outlook - December 22, 2012
Immediate AUD/USD outlook based on recent economic releasesAUD/USD outlook

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Aussie-US Dollar Interest Rate Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
Australian dollar
3.00%
U.S. Dollar
0.25%
AUD/USD interest rate comparision
2.75%

 

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