The AUDUSD had bearish momentum this week, bottomed at 0.9860 but closed a little bit higher at 0.9980 on Friday. My overall intraday outlook is more to the downside but hourly chart suggests a bullish correction phase. Now let’s take a broader view. As you can see on my daily chart below price is moving inside a triangle formation indicates consolidation phase after fell from its record high at 1.1079 five months ago. Key support area is seen around the lower line of the triangle and 0.9785. A clear break below the triangle could trigger further bearish reversal scenario. On the upside, key resistance area is seen around the upper line of the triangle and the EMA 200 which located around 1.0250 – 1.0300. A clear break above that area would postpone the bearish reversal scenario, probably aim for a new record high. Personally I prefer a bearish reversal scenario. The probability is still 50-50 but the risk – reward ratio is better for the bearish side.
Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.
©2011 FX Instructor Forex Blog - For Traders, By Traders. All Rights Reserved.