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Thursday's pullback in US equities is significant for Aussie given the extremely high +0.76 correlation since the beginning of 2009. As such, we feel it might be time to start looking for a potential pullback in the outperforming commodity currency in light of the latest equity developments, with the S&P and DJIA both putting in bearish outside days on Thursday.

BEARISH OUTSIDE DAY IN US EQUITIES WARNS OF A TOP IN AUD/USD

TechnoFundamentals - Aud/Usd: Thursday's pullback in US equities is significant for Aussie given the extremely high +0.76 correlation since the beginning of 2009. As such, we feel it might be time to start looking for a potential pullback in the outperforming commodity currency in light of the latest equity developments, with the S&P and DJIA both putting in bearish outside days on Thursday. The currency pair is now just under 70 on the daily RSI and also stalling out by the most relevant weekly moving average (we believe; see below), in the form of the 50-Week SMA which now acts as former support turned resistance. As such, we think that the higher yielding Aussie could be at risk for a material pullback over the coming days and we will look to take advantage. With equity futures trading higher again though, we do not want to risk entering the trade at current levels (0.7560) or selling on a break. We would rather be patient and hope to get filled on a break to fresh 2009 highs today. A potential catalyst for the rally could come in the form of a much better than expected NFP result in the NY morning. However, ultimately, with both the equity market and the currency pair looking overbought, any rallies are not seen as sustainable. All of the good news seems to have been priced in and the markets are starting to show it. SELL @0.7645 FOR A 0.7245 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.7845. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back below 0.7545. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close (4pm ET) on Friday.



Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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