Forex Technical Update

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AUD/USD 4H Chart 9/12/2012 10:28PM EDT


The last AUD/USD update noted more room towards a key level around 1.0440 that involved a declining trendline, a previous pivot seen more clearly in teh daily chart, and 61.8% retreacement of the 1.0612 - 1.0166 swing. The AUD/USD stalled here only briefly before breaking this resistance. However, it turned back from 1.05 and tested this area again.

As we begin the 9/13 session, the pair has found the previous resistance as support (it is already 9/13 in Asia, though technically still 9/12 in the US). This reflects further bullish bias heading into the next key risk event: Fed policy meeting.

The market seems to be focused on the 1.0612 high now especially if it can clear the 1.05 intra-session resistance pivot. It will probably require QE3 to be able to push through the 1.0612 level. If this is the case, the next key resistance is in the 1.0845 - 1.0850 area, which contains the 2012-high.

However, the "disappointment" scenario could bring about a reversal since the rally has been much based on USD-weakness stemming from QE3 expectation. A break below 1.04 would probably bring back the bearish outlook. Some pivots seen in the 4H chart that we should monitor are:
1) 1.0321 level in the near-term,
2) 1.0274
3) 1.0227
4) 1.0166 low.

AUD/USD Daily Chart 9/12/2012 10:22PM EDT


AUD/USD 9/12/2012

Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.