Forex Technical Update
AUD/USD 4H Chart 9/12/2012 10:28PM EDT
The last AUD/USD update noted more room towards a key level around 1.0440 that involved a declining trendline, a previous pivot seen more clearly in teh daily chart, and 61.8% retreacement of the 1.0612 - 1.0166 swing. The AUD/USD stalled here only briefly before breaking this resistance. However, it turned back from 1.05 and tested this area again.
As we begin the 9/13 session, the pair has found the previous resistance as support (it is already 9/13 in Asia, though technically still 9/12 in the US). This reflects further bullish bias heading into the next key risk event: Fed policy meeting.
The market seems to be focused on the 1.0612 high now especially if it can clear the 1.05 intra-session resistance pivot. It will probably require QE3 to be able to push through the 1.0612 level. If this is the case, the next key resistance is in the 1.0845 - 1.0850 area, which contains the 2012-high.
However, the "disappointment" scenario could bring about a reversal since the rally has been much based on USD-weakness stemming from QE3 expectation. A break below 1.04 would probably bring back the bearish outlook. Some pivots seen in the 4H chart that we should monitor are:
1) 1.0321 level in the near-term,
4) 1.0166 low.
AUD/USD Daily Chart 9/12/2012 10:22PM EDT
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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