Introduction:

The Australian dollar still isn't in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is up exchanging at 1.0589. The pair spent the week in the range of 1.0597 to 1.0424. Investors on Friday moved from the US after a pair of reports positive reports. U.S. economic data showed continued improvement, but with inflationary pressures starting to rise, [the Fed] may not be able to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary policy for much longer. Today's U.S. CPI data could prove to be the main catalyst for trade if it rises above the key 3% level on a year-over-year basis.

The Aussie dropped in earlier weekly trading on a slew of negative news from China. This data culminated over the weekend when China posted a trade deficit of $31.48 billion in February after reporting a $27.28 billion surplus in January, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Saturday. This followed a recent reduction in 2011 GDP by close to 2%.

The pair are expected to fall early in the week as there is little to support the move of the Aussie. The pair might reach the lower end of the week's trading channel.

There are several economic reports and a lot of information coming from the RBA this coming week, but none is expected to move the markets... Keep an eye on Tuesdays Monetary Policy.

width=710 

Major Economic Events for the week of March 19-24

Mar. 20

01:30

 

AUD

 
 
 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 21

10:30

 

GBP

 
 
 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

22:45

 

NZD

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 22

10:30

 

GBP

 
 
 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 
 
 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

13:30

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

17:00

 

EUR

 
 
 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Mar. 23

12:00

 

CAD

 
 
 

Core CPI (MoM) 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

15:00

 

USD

 
 
 

New Home Sales 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

The week's highlights

In Australia, data on skilled vacancies and merchandise imports is set for release.

The Bank of England will also release the minutes of its last meeting, while data on housing starts and building approvals is due in the United States.

The European Union will release draft proposals regarding the regulation of shadow banks.

The International Monetary Fund will host high level talks at the two day China-India conference in New Delhi.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak at an investment conference in the week ahead.

Monday

The National Association of Home Builders housing market index for March will be released in the United States on Monday.

Tuesday

The RBA will release the minutes of its March policy meeting, where it kept the official cash rate on hold for the second consecutive time. Investors will watch carefully for any reflection on the expected direction that rates will take over the rest of the year. Most economists are still expecting at least one more rate cut in 2012.

US February housing starts figures and building approval data released. Economists are forecasting housing starts to be flat for the month, at around 700,000.

In the United Kingdom, February consumer price index data is awaited, alongside retail price index figures for the month.

Wednesday

The international merchandise figures for February reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Also the Department of Education and Workplace Relations will release its skilled vacancies index for February.

February existing home sales figures in the US, along with the weekly Energy Information Administration petroleum status report. Analysts expect the data to show a rise in home sales of about two per cent.

Thursday

Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage applications figures are also due.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England will release the minutes of its last policy meeting.

UK public sector net borrowing for February is also due. 

Also due is the highly anticipated jobless claims data is out in the US. February retail sales data is expected in the UK.

Friday

US new home sales figures for February and experts expect sales to have risen by 6,000 to 327,000.

Economic Releases for the week of March 12-16

Mar. 13

 

JPY

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

22.3

 

10.5 

 

5.4 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.8% 

 

1.1% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

1.1% 

 

0.6% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 
 

Mar. 14

 

GBP

 
 
 

Claimant Count Change 

7.2K

 

6.0K 

 

7.0K 

 
 

Mar. 15

 

CHF

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

356K 

 

365K 

 
 

Mar. 16

 

USD

 
 
 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

 
 

 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

 Mar 19  n/a   Greece  CDS Auction

Mar 19  10:10  Slovakia  Bond auction

Mar 19  10:10  Norway  T-bill auction

Mar 20  09:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Mar 21  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 21  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Mar 21  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills

Mar 22  10:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Mar 22  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Mar 22  15:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar

28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29

AUD/USD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
1.0447
1.0479
1.0534
1.0566
1.0621
1.0653
1.0708

Fibonacci
1.0479
1.0512
1.0533
1.0566
1.0599
1.0620
1.0653

Camarilla
1.0565
1.0573
1.0581
1.0566
1.0597
1.0605
1.0613

Woodie's
-
1.0485
1.0546
1.0572
1.0633
1.0659
-

DeMark's
-
-
1.0637
1.0574
1.0550
-
-