AUD/USD drew some support from 61.8% retracement of 0.9536 to 1.0254 and recovered. But such recovery was limited at 1.0019 and AUD/USD dropped sharply towards the end of the week. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside this week for 0.9803 support first. Break will indicate that fall from 1.0254 has resumed. Also, this will affirm the case of medium term reversal and will target 0.9536 support for confirmation. On the upside, though, above 1.0019 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.0254 record high.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal yet and up trend from 0.6008 could still continue. Nevertheless, note that both the rise from 0.8066 and the larger rally from 0.6008 are showing sign of loss of momentum. Bearish divergence condition is clearly seen in daily and weekly MACD. More importantly, rise from 0.8066 is possibly the fifth wave in the five wave sequence from 0.6088, which has met the 61.8% projection target already. Hence, we'll be cautiously looking for reversal signal even in case of another rise. Break of 0.9536 support will indicate that a sizeable correction could finally be starting to drag AUD/USD back to 0.8066/9404 support zone.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

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