AUD/USD's reversal at 1.0075 last week suggests that corrective recovery from 0.9803 is finished an fall from 1.0254 might be resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Break of 0.9803 will also affirm the case of medium term reversal and will target 0.9536 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.0075 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1.0254 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term reversal continues to build up with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Note that 0.8066 is possibly the fifth wave in the five wave sequence from 0.6088, which has met the 61.8% projection target already. Break of 0.9803 support will add more credence to the case of medium term topping at 1.0254 and would target 0.9536 for confirmation. Break of 0.9536 support will indicate that a sizeable correction could finally be starting to drag AUD/USD back to 0.8066/9404 support zone. Though, above 1.0075 will mix up the outlook and would likely bring another rise above 1.0254 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

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