AUD/USD's sharp fall from 1.0199 last week indicates that rebound from 0.9803 is finished. Also, such development suggests that whole decline from 1.0254 is possibly resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9803 first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.0254 to 09803 from 1.0199 at 0.9748 next. On the upside, above 1.0065 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first and bring some recovery.

In the bigger picture, note that bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD. Reversal should be imminent even if 1.0254 is not yet the major top. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside break of 0.9803 support will now be an early signal of medium term reversal and will turn focus to 0.9536 support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

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