AUD/USD rebounded further to 1.0601 last week but failed 55 days EMA and reversed. Such rebound might have completed already and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 0.9926 support first. Break will resume whole decline from 1.1079 towards channel support (now at 0.9700). On the upside, above 1.0601 will bring another rise instead. But after all, we'd expect strong resistance ahead of 1.1079 to bring reversal to extend the consolidation from 1.1079.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 has completed with bearish divergence in daily MACD at 1.1079. However, AUD/USD is staying well inside long term rising channel from 2008 low of 0.6008. Hence, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and the current fall from 1.1079 is viewed as a correction only. Hence while deeper decline would be seen to long term channel support and possibly below, we'd expect strong support from 0.9404 resistance turned support to contained downside.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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