AUD/USD's rebound from 0.9926 extended to as high as 1.0764 last week before losing momentum and formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, above 1.0764 will bring another rise towards 1.1079 but we'd expect strong resistance form there to limit upside and bring reversal. Consolidation from 1.1079 is expected to have one more falling leg. On the downside, below 1.0533 minor support will indicate argue that rebound from 0.9926 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 1.0314 will confirm and target a retest on 0.9926 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 has completed with bearish divergence in daily MACD at 1.1079. However, AUD/USD is staying well inside long term rising channel from 2008 low of 0.6008. Hence, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and the price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a correction only. Hence while deeper decline would be seen to long term channel support and possibly below, we'd expect strong support from 0.9404 resistance turned support to contained downside.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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