AUD/USD formed a temporary bottom at 1.0177 and recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. But after all, we're favoring the case the corrective rise from 0.9926 is already completed with three waves up to 1.0764. Hence, we'd expect current recovery to be limited by 1.0481 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Below 1.0177 will extend the decline from 1.0764 to retest 0.9926 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.0481 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 1.0764 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 has completed with bearish divergence in daily MACD at 1.1079. However, AUD/USD is staying well inside long term rising channel from 2008 low of 0.6008. Hence, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and the price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a correction only. While deeper decline would be seen to long term channel support and possibly below, we'd expect strong support from 0.9404 resistance turned support to contained downside.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

/

/

/

/