After edging lower to 0.9621, AUD/USD lost momentum ahead of 100% projection of 1.1079 to 0.9926 from 1.0764 at 0.9611 and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidation might be seen above 0.9621. But upside is expected to be limited below 1.0177 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.9621 will target 0.9404 key support level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.0177 will be the first signal that whole correction from 1.1079 has completed and will turn focus to 1.0764 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.9404 key support level. As long as this support holds, price actions from 1.1079 is treated as a correction, or part of a consolidation pattern to the up trend from 0.6008 only. And, in such case, AUD/USD should still made another high above 1.1079 before forming an important top. However, sustained break of 0.9404 will indicate that rise from 0.6008 is already finished and would possibly bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.6006 to 1.1079 at 0.7945.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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