AUD/USD rebounded further to as high as 1.0345 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for near term falling channel resistance (now at 1.0389) first. Break there should pave the way to 1.0764 resistance and above. On the downside, below 1.0104 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 0.9865 support holds.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD drew strong support from 0.9404 despite a brief breach and the development retained bullish outlook in the long term. Whole up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and price actions from 1.1079 should merely be a consolidation pattern. Having said that, though, we'd be cautious on reverse signal as AUD/USD enters into 1.0764/1079 resistance zone and there would be another near term decline before consolidation from 1.1079 finishes. But in any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and favor an eventual upside break out.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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