AUD/USD stayed in sideway consolidation below 1.0371 for most of the week before breaking out towards the end to close at 1.3073. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.9387is still in progress and has resumed. The break of near term falling channel also suggests that corrective fall from 1.1079 is already finished with three waves down to 0.9387. Initial bias on the upside this week for 1.0764 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.0117 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay near term bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD drew strong support from 0.9404 despite a brief breach and the development retained bullish outlook in the long term. Whole up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and price actions from 1.1079 should merely be a consolidation pattern. Having said that, though, we'd be cautious on reverse signal as AUD/USD enters into 1.0764/1079 resistance zone and there would be another near term decline before consolidation from 1.1079 finishes. But in any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and favor an eventual upside break out.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.