Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral for the moment as rebound from 0.8734 is upside moment. As noted before, with with 0.9013 resistance intact, rebound from 0.8743 is treated as correction to fall from 0.9321 only. Below 0.8899 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8734 and below. However, note that sustained trading above 0.9013 will dampen this view and mixes up the outlook. Focus will then be turned to 0.9193 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8915/8945 support zone confirm the bearish case that AUD/USD has already topped out at 0.9404 in medium term, by completing a head and shoulder top (ls: 0.9326, h: 0.9404, rs: 0.9321). Deeper decline should be seen to correct the whole rise from 0.6008 and should target 0.7702/0.8626 support zone. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen there, at lease initially, and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9193 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

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