AUD/USD rose strongly to as high as 0.9264 last week. The development left fall from 0.9404 to 0.9734 in three wave corrective structure which indicates that the pair has not topped yet. With an intraday top in place at 0.9264, some sideway trading might be seen initially this week but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9264 at 0.9062 and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9264 will target 0.9404 resistance be beyond.

In the bigger picture, the corrective three wave structure of fall from 0.9404 to 0.8734 suggests that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. Break of 0.9321 resistance will confirm this case and target a test of 0.9404 first. Break will then target 08 high of 0.9849. On the downside, though, break of 0.8734 support will revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD