AUD/USD's fall from 0.9327 extended further to as low as 0.8981last week and remains weak. Outlook in AUD/USD is quite mixed for the moment considering that dollar has been impressively strong elsewhere. Question is whether fall from 0.9327 is just a correction to rise from 0.8734 or it's developing into a larger decline. Nevertheless, in any case, initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 0.9145 minor resistance holds and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9327 at 0.8961. Sustained break there will shift favor to the case that fall fro 0.9327 is resuming the whole decline from 0.9404 and AUD/USD should drop through 0.8734 support. On other hand, strong rebound from 0.8961, or a break of 0.9145 minor resistance, will indicate that fall from 0.9327 is likely just a correction and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 0.9327 and then 0.9404.

In the bigger picture, the failure below 0.9404 high and deep pull back from 0.9327 mixes up the outlook of AUD/USD and we'll turn neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, one thing to note is that AUD/USD is losing upside momentum as seen with bearish divergence in daily MACD. Hence, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance as AUD/USD approaches 2008 high of 0.9849 and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8734 support will in turn revive the case that whole medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8626 support zone.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD