AUD/USD formed a short term top at 1.0752 last week but subsequent pull back might be finished at 1.0202 already. initial bias is mildly on the upside for a test on 1.0752 high first. On the downside, below 1.0202 will bring deeper decline to parity and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.9387 to 1.0752 at 0.9908 and bring another rise. After all, we'd favoring the case that correction from 1.1709 is finished with three waves down to 0.9387. Hence, we'd expect rise from 0.9387 to extend through 1.1079 eventually.

In the bigger picture, the medium term outlook in AUD/USD remains bullish as up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is expected to extend further higher. Break of 1.1079 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8066 to 1.1079 from 0.9387 at 1.1249 next. In any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual upside breakout.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

/

/

/

/