AUD/USD's choppy fall from 1.0752 extended to as low as 0.9963 last week. At this point, we're still favoring the case that such decline is merely a correction. Hence, while deeper fall cannot be ruled out initially this week, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.9387 to 1.0752 at 0.9908 to conclude the correction and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0340 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0752 resistance. However, note that sustained break of 0.9908 fib level will dampen this view and turn focus back to 0.9387 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the medium term outlook in AUD/USD remains bullish as up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is expected to extend further higher. Break of 1.1079 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8066 to 1.1079 from 0.9387 at 1.1249 next. In any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual upside breakout.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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