AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8577 was stronger than expected and reached as high as 0.8918 last week before retreating. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 0.9327 only. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 0.8709 minor support will indicate that such rebound has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8577 support next. On the upside, above 0.8918 will bring more rally but upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9327 to 0.8577 at 0.9041 and bring fall resumption. However, sustained trading above 0.9041 fibo resistance will dampen out view and put focus back to 0.9327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that AUD/USD has already topped out in medium term at 0.9404, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper correction should now be seen towards 0.7702/0.8262 support zone, with 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706, after completing the current rebound from 0.8577. However, break of 0.9327 resistance will invalidate our view and bring another high above 0.9404 before AUD/USD tops.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD