AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8577 extended further to as high as 0.9035 resistance last week but was held below 61.8% retracement of 0.9327 to 0.8577 at 0.9041 and weakened. However subsequent fall was relatively brief and was contained by 4 hours 55 EMA and recovered strongly. Short term outlook is mixed and we'll stay neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained trading above 0.9041 fibonacci level will argue that whole call from 0.9404 high has completed with three waves down to 0.8577 already. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to test 0.9327 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8878 minor support will flip intraday bias to the downside. Further break of 0.8785 will indicate that rebound from 0.8577 has completed and will retain bearish case that fall from 0.9404 is still in progress. In such case, AUD/USD should have a retest on 0.8577 support first.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD's resilience dampens out view that the pair has topped out in medium term at 0.9404 already and mixes up the outlook. In any case, break of 0.9327 resistance will indicate that price actions from 0.9404 are merely consolidation in the larger rally and has completed after hitting 23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404. In such case, another high above 0.9404 should be seen before AUD/USD tops. On the downside, note that break of 0.8577 will reaffirm the case that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed and will bring deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8262 support zone, with 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD