Despite dropping to 0.8802, AUD/USD was held above 0.8785 support and rebounded strongly. The development left fall from 0.9070 in three wave corrective structure and thus argue that rise from 0.8577 is not over. Intraday bias is neutral this week and we'd wait for a break of 0.9070 resistance for confirmation. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for a test on 0.9327/9404 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 0.8802 support will revive the case that rebound from 0.8577 is completed after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9327 to 0.8577 at 0.9041 and should bring fall to 0.8577 and below.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD's resilience dampens our view that the pair has topped out in medium term at 0.9404 already and mixes up the outlook. In any case, break of 0.9327 resistance will indicate that price actions from 0.9404 are merely consolidation in the larger rally and has completed after hitting 23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404. In such case, another high above 0.9404 should be seen before AUD/USD tops. On the downside, note that break of 0.8577 will reaffirm the case that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed and will bring deeper correction towards 0.7702/0.8262 support zone, with 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD