AUD/USD edged higher to 1.0377 last week but failed to sustain gain and retreated sharply. Nonetheless, with 0.9942 minor support intact, rise from 0.9663 is still in favor to continue. Above 1.0377 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0752 first. However, break of 0.9942 will confirm that rebound from 0.9663 is finished and fall from 1.0752 is set to resume for a test on 0.9387 support instead.
In the bigger picture, firstly, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Current development argues that consolidation pattern from 1.1079 might extend further. But in any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is still anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.