AUD/USD's fall from 0.9250 extended further to as low as 0.9007 last week and the sustained break of the near term rising trend line argues that whole rise from 0.9577 is completed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.8802 support first. Break will confirm this case and target a retest of 0.8577 low. On the upside, however, above 0.9139 minor resistance will suggest that fall from 0.9250 is completed and rise from 0.8577 is still in progress for another high above 0.9250.

In the bigger picture, with daily MACD staying well below signal line, rise from 0.8577 has likely completed at 0.9250 after hitting falling trend line resistance from 0.9404. The development puts medium term rising channel support (now at 0.8896) back into focus. Note that as long as this support holds, medium term rally from 0.6008 is still in favor to continue for a test on 0.9836 high. However sustained break of the channel support will revive the case that rise from 0.6008 is already finished at 0.9404 and deeper pull back should then be seen to 0.7702/8262 support zone instead.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD