AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

By @ibtimes on

While upside momentum in AUD/USD is a bit unconvincing from a near term point of view, we'd continue to favor upside a long as 0.9130 support holds and expect more rally to 0.9250 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rise from 0.8577 has resumed and should target a retest on 0.9404 high. ON the downside, below 0.9130 will argue that consolidations from 0.9250 is still in progress and will turn focus back to 0.9000 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is possibly still in progress as AUD/USD is still trading well inside rising channel. A break above 0.9327 resistance will affirm this case. Also, If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, however, break of 0.8802 support will in turn leave the rise from 0.8577 in three wave corrective structure and hence revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped out.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

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