AUD/USD jumped to as high as 1.3085 last week but failed to sustain above 1.0377 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. Another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.0043 minor support holds. Above 1.0385 will target upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0505) first). On the downside, though, break of 1.0043 will flip bias back to the downside for lower trend line support (now at 0.9896). After all, note that AUD/USD is still bounded inside converging range since 1.1079 and more choppy sideway trading could be seen before an eventual upside breakout.
In the bigger picture, firstly, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Current development argues that consolidation pattern from 1.1079 might extend further. But in any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.