AUD/USD picked up momentum again and broken 0.9327 resistance last week. The development affirmed the view that consolidation from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8577 already. Initial bias remains on the upside for a test on 0.9404 high this week. On the downside, below 0.9264 minor support will indicate that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral. But downside should be contained above 0.9128 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and rise from 0.6008 should still be in progress. The break of 0.9327 resistance affirms the view that rise from 0.8577 is resuming such rally and break of 0.9404 will confirm. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of 0.9000 support will, however, suggests that AUD/USD's rally might have completed prematurely and would turn focus back to 0.8802 support instead.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD