AUD/USD edged lower to 0.9134 last week but was supported by 55 days EMA and rebounded. However, such rebound failed below 0.9336 and weakened again towards the end of the week. Such development mixed up the near term outlook. Though, considering that daily MACD is now staying below signal line, we'd favor the case that rise from 0.8577 is completed at 0.9380 already, ahead of 0.9404 high. A break below 0.9134 support will affirm this case and target 0.9000 support and below. However, a break above 0.9336 will shift focus back to 0.9404 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the lost of momentum ahead of 0.9404 resistance is pressing AUD/USD back to the medium term channel support. Break of 0.9134 support will also have this channel taken out, which in turn suggests that a medium term top is already in place. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 0.8577 support and below to correct the whole rally from 2008 low of 6.008. On the upside, however, decisive break of 0.9404 resistance will indicate that medium term rally from 6.008 is still in progress. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD