AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8715 was limited at 0.9077 and reversed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retest of 0.8715 low first. Though, break there is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidations would be seen first. On the upside, above 0.9025 resistance will flip intraday bias to the upside for another rise above 0.9077 as correction fro 0.8715 extends.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term rising channel indicates that medium term rally from 2008 low of 6.008 is finished at 0.9404 already. Deeper decline should now be seen towards 0.8577 key support first (23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.8603). Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and should target 0.7702/8262 support zone next. On the upside, break of 0.9404 is needed to confirm medium term rally resumption. Otherwise, outlook will now be neutral at best.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD