AUD/USD jumped further to as high as 1.0844 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on near term channel support (now at 1.0606). As long as AUD/USD stays inside this channel, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish for another rise. Above 1.0844 will target a test on 1.1079. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that a short term top is at least formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper decline would be seen back to 1.0377 resistance turned support. Break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 0.9663 and will turn outlook bearish for another leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.1079.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.