AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8079 extended further last week. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing and AUD/USD is now pressing key cluster resistance of 0.8715 (50% retracement of 0.9380 to 0.8066 at 0.8723) as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.8715). We'd stay neutral initially this week. Break of 0.8503 minor support will indicate that rebound from 0.8066 is likely completed after hitting mentioned 0.8715 cluster resistance. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for 0.8066 and below. However, sustained trading above 0.8715 will indicate that whole fall from 0.9380 is already completed and will bring stronger rally to retest key resistance zone of 0.9380/9404.

In the bigger picture, while the decline from 0.9380 is steep, it's still treated as a correction to medium term up trend from 0.6008. Decisive break of 0.88157 will argue that such correction is already finished after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404. In such case, retest of 0.9404 would be seen next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.7702 (50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706), at least initially, to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD