AUD/USD turned sideway after edging higher to 0.8858 last week. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations might still be seen. But after all, another rise remains in favor as long as 0.8505 support holds. Above 0.8858 will target a test on 0.9380/9404 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 0.8505 will argue that whole rebound from 0.8066 might be finished and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 0.8517 resistance suggests that medium term correction from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8066 already, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404. Whole up trend from 0.6008 would be resuming and break of 0.9404 will target a retest on 2007 high of 0.9849 next. Though, break of 0.8505 will revive the case that price actions from 0.8066 are merely consolidations and fall from 0.9404 is still in progress.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD